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Australia’s future security and prosperity in a rapidly changing region and world
If the last hundred years has taught us anything, it is that the international landscape is unpredictable and ever-changing. As an active middle power, Australia must be smart and creative in the exercise of its international influence.
The world’s population will rise to 7.7 billion by 2020, with the populations of China and India rising to 1.4 and 1.3 billion respectively. The United States will remain the world’s foremost power with global reach, and Japan is expected to remain a major economic force, a key export destination and security partner for Australia. Indonesia, the world’s largest Muslim democracy, is also under-going major political, social and economic transformation. Already relations among the current and emerging great powers are exercising powerful shaping effects on Australia’s region. A key question for the Summit will be how Australia should best work through global and regional institutions to address the shifting distribution of global power.
Australia has benefited greatly from globalization, and the internationalization of our economy has coincided with a sustained increase in prosperity. While our society is multicultural, today fewer than fifteen per cent of Year 12 students study a second language. Meanwhile, one million Australians live abroad, many of them highly educated. How can we make use of both our multicultural society and the Australians who live abroad to better contribute to Australia’s continued prosperity?
Globalisation has also brought challenges. The transnational threat spectrum, including terrorism, trafficking in narcotics, people smuggling and weapons proliferation, will remain complex and require global solutions. Increased competition for resources, particularly in the developing world, will be exacerbated by population increases and climate change. Australia will need to be ready to respond to these challenges.
Some of Australia’s neighbours are faced with problems of chronic poverty, high birth-rates and stagnating economies. Australia has a responsibility to work with its neighbours in the Asia-Pacific region to address development challenges and a security interest in ensuring that they prosper rather than fall behind. Are there new forms of engagement that need to be promoted between Australia and developing countries in our region?Background paper
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